COVID 19 - The Spread of A Virus.
First published on April 5, 2020
Complete research here: The Best Laid Plans COVID-19
The Best Laid Plans COVID-19Note that this is just an opinion based on decades of experience, knowledge and examining everything available to date in the public domain.
ReferencesThis article is written to start a conversation about what is happening and how we can escape the downward spiral before it's too late. Constructive criticism and open dialogue is all this is for. Please participate, research and comment. All feedback is welcome, other than conspiracy theories or unnecessary attacks.
One word. Panic. That was the trigger. The issue is what each country did next.
The panic appears to have started as a reaction to China's unusually public view into their reaction to the outbreak. Unlike any other time, news reports were 'leaking' in almost real time out of China. When does that ever happen, let alone as 4K drone footage, professionally produced? China apparently wanted the world to see it building massive hospitals in an apparent uncontrolled panic.
Anyone around the security services in the late 80's would be aware of the 'break glass in case of emergency' plan every country in NATO (and beyond) was using. If enough panic was induced, this plan could (and appears to have been) triggered.
The messaging from China appeared to demonstrate that COVID 19 was a highly infectious and deadly virus. This was helped by China appearing to misrepresent the numbers to underplay the outbreak, whilst letting the world see its apparent reaction. Thousands of temporary hospital beds, in 16 temporary hospitals built in days. However, very few reported deaths by comparison. China must be lying about the numbers, was the obvious reaction. What if the lie was the hospitals and beds, not the actual deaths?
In January 2020, the first reported cases outside of China started to appear around the world. However, no-one panicked as it spread initially. Remember, millions of infected people were moving in and out of China before the first case was reported outside of China. The virus is considered to be as or more infectious than flu. That we know, based on how it is being handled. Did it only start infecting and killing people after we started testing though? Infectious AND Polite!? That would be novel for a coronavirus!!
What happens next is an apparent classification directive to count COVID 19 deaths 'as anyone who tests positive'. This is the baseline for COVID 19 deaths in all countries. Imagine if we did that with flu. The already astronomic rate of flu deaths would be terrifying and make COVID 19 look like a walk in the park.
Countries saw an initial spike in deaths, now associated with COVID 19 (but not necessarily due to COVID 19).
The focus of the world turned to Italy.
Why Italy though? Italy was the 22nd country to have a reported case, one month after China and two and a half months after the apparent start of the infection spread worldwide. Italy was the 8th country to have a reported death.
Northern Italy has a mortality rate for coronavirus type infections that is 600% higher than the US. It also has a high population of Chinese workers. This created a perfect storm for apparent COVID 19 related deaths. It also started using mass COVID 19 tests on the dead and dying.
Time to 'break the glass' in Italy.
That triggers protocols for biowarfare and radiological (nuclear) attack, the only plan they have. This is what is referred to as RBC (Radiological, Biological, Chemical) emergency response plan. Suddenly everyone is suited up from the receptionist and cleaner to the doctors and nurses like a scene from the Andomeda Strain. Hospitals were not designed for this. They quickly started running out of masks and gloves as they were using them at an exponentially higher rate than normally required. China stockpiled this equipment and material (as China NEEDED them). Panic escalated world wide.
Test kits started arriving and lock downs went into effect, one country after another. Doctors were panicking about being infected so followed international guidelines on INTUBATED ventilation instead of using masks or cannulas for oxygen. This is pretty much fatal for a pneumonia patient and ventilation is typically for someone with an inability to breathe mechanically, not for an issue with oxygen exchange in the lungs. Even in those without pneumonia, intubated ventilation can cause pneumonia and a loss of oxygen exchange, typically in 25%+ of cases. They even have a name for it - VAP (Ventilator Associated Pneumonia). Pneumonia + Age + Pre-Existing Conditions = Bodies start stacking up.
As the bodies are now considered almost hazardous waste, routine autopsies are deemed too risky and new ways have to be found to store the accumulating bodies. Normal processes to return the dead to undertakers and family is suspended adding to the strain on an already burgeoning health system. We are seeing this play out in New York daily now.
Why are patients being intubating then? Because affected patients require oxygen therapy for falling o2 saturation. However, the directives and protocols provided state that the virus is spread by aerosolization i.e. fine droplets. The cannula and mask (with holes in the front) aerosolizes the patient's breath... can't have that.
Why does the world suddenly need millions of ventilators, when doctors continue to report that almost if not all patients who are intubated and placed on a ventilator ultimately die? What then is the point? Yet the cry for ventilators, masks and gloves is relentless. All of these are suddenly in short supply. All because of PANIC, hoarding and international health directives.
Is this deliberate or just incompetence? Who knows. Or maybe WHO does! But it is clear how the panic spread and how it has caused what is happening as a result.
Now we have a highly infectious disease everyone is concerned is spreading as easily as people breathe. This was circulating out of China and across the world for months before the first reported death outside of China. However, we can stop it (or slow it down to a crawl) by 'sort of' staying indoors!? Even if EVERYONE followed governments' directions to the letter, people would still be circulating, as would the virus. People in essentials services are all leaving the house, as is virtually EVERYONE to collect food and medications at the very least.
Imagine the Andromeda Strain again. Through the level 5 containment process, the cleaner is sent out out to get milk from ground zero and leaves the back door open to come and go. No biohazard protocols, just going shopping after all. How effective would that be?
This virus has been identified to have a R0 (R nought) of between 2-4 (differing models have different numbers). This is the rate of spread i.e. R1 = 1 person infect one person. R2, one person infects two people etc. Based on a R0 of 3 we would have had over 1 billion infections in the first 30 days. That would have been by mid December 2019. By now, we would be seeing infections in the range of 70% of the population, These are the models and numbers that were (and are) being used to justify the lock downs. Mortality rates of 2%-3% and above, all the way to over 10% in some countries have been cited. Why then have bodies not been piling up since Christmas world wide?
Note that H1N1 has an R0 of about 1.4-1.7. WHO projected an R0 for COVID 19 as 3.4, upon which most models where based. More detailed studies in March moved that R0 to closer to 5.7. Recently, models have been adjusted for the significant drop in mortality that is being seen, but the spread rates (R0) are still felt to be accurate. For an explanation of R0, see this video from 3Blue1Brown [Video Link].
If this is the case, the lock down does nothing for a virus that has already infected large numbers of the population and has spread so easily. However, if that many people have contracted COVID 19 and the mortality rate is as bad as reported (13% in Italy at one point), again, why are there not bodies piling up in the streets? This virus has a two-week incubation period and patient zero appeared in one of the most populous and internationally visited location as early as mid November 2019. Something does not add up.
Anyone saying the virus has already spread uncontrollably is silenced as it doesn't support the panic and reactions the governments have taken (or the media narrative). Now we are into a situation where governments have to justify what has been implemeted. Governments implemented the 'break the glass' plan with as much thought as a person panic buying toilet paper. 'Italy did it, so we must!' seems to be the thought process. WHO was driving this?
Then some governments appear to have capitalised on the opportunities to power grab. Never waste a crisis…
We are currently on a path with a plan that was designed in a way that it would guarantee tens of thousands would die. That plan would be justifiable in the carnage of what governments would be dealing with i.e. A nuclear, biological or large scale chemical World War. That plan would normally have been executed over days. In this case, we are slowly following the script, so a lot of people don't recognize the steps. Even those who might are too focused on following protocols.
Now we have mass surveillance, DNA testing and martial law coming to a street near you soon. All in a matter of weeks. How bad will it get in a few months?
All of these actions are based on the premise that the virus is deadly and can be stopped (or slowed) by partially isolating the population. Does this make sense considering when it started and how fast and easily it spreads?
We can see from my previous articles that is assumption is based on numbers and testing that is highly flawed but apparently directed from a single source.
What if we told people that the chance of getting COVID 19 was 20% or less (the actual numbers show that based on tested vs. tested positive in the US). What if the chance of death was orders of magnitude less than flu despite the implementation of steps that should be just as effective on flu? Seasonal flu (all ten strains this season) has taken many more lives in the same period as COVID 19 has been active. How many people would let the government ruin their lives, shut down businesses and take away every civil liberty based on this reality? However, broadcast glowing red maps and tell people that millions of people will die without full compliance and everyone stays indoors, well almost everyone.
What next? How will a vaccine help? **
A flu by another other name. We have had a vaccine for H1N1 since October 2009, when it was more commonly known as Swine Flu. Care to guess what the primary flu killer (out of 10 strains) is this year? - H1N1 [CDC Link]. We have been dealing with strains of H1N1 for more than 100 years, since it was first made famous as Spanish Flu [CDC Link -Previous Pandemics]. If COVID 19 is truly more deadly and more contagious than seasonal flu, then how will the vaccine bring us below the numbers that triggered the global shutdown?
However, a treatment is available that has been tried and tested since 2003. China used it right away and opened their borders on the same day the last major country outside of China closed theirs. Coincidence?
There is some push back. People across the world are questioning the numbers. There is talk that it might not be so bad. Suddenly rumours surface that in other parts of China it has started to spread. Panic flares up again and people stop looking at what the real numbers are.
People were starting to ask, how did this spread across the world and not across China? That was a question that China and others did not need people asking. So, let's have another flare up in China, everyone goes back to the 'narrative', and re-focuses on all the apparent deaths from COVID 19 at home.
This all falls apart though when you take a good hard look at overall mortality. We have not had any worldwide spikes in overall deaths this year. In fact, total deaths are down year on year worldwide. Does that sound like a new pandemic killing many more millions this year? But the numbers of reported cases and COVID 19 classified deaths are climbing. Yes, they are, but at the exact same logarithmic scale as test kits are being distributed!!! [see COVID 19 – Is the lock down working?]
In reality, experts are now speaking out and showing that this virus is no more deadly than seasonal flu. Current models expanding beyond the panic show it is in fact much LESS deadly than flu.
On top of that, we have a treatment that kills the virus in the body in 100% of cases (based on multiple studies). If caught early enough, it can save 100% of patients (barring other complications that would cause mortality regardless of COVID 19). But WHO and others are pushing back and delaying the use of it. Why? [Link to CDC testing]
As a result, outside of China, the preference is to use much more risky blood plasma transfusions therapy. [Link to blood transfusion risks]. Why is the proven 'off label' use of a cheap tried and tested medication that has been around for decades continually pushed to one side while people are dying with this virus?
We need to stop counting bodies based on flawed statistics designed to induce panic. We need to start saving lives and get back to work.
The problem is that governments now need to do one of a few things to dig us literally out of this grave.
This reduces the stress and strain on the front line and society overall. The stress itself is killing in some cases. [Ontario increasing mental health resources to cope with COVID 19 fallout]. This is a story playing out in ever increasing numbers across the globe.
With these steps, people could go back to work, with some extra attention to cleanliness and overall health management. That might even generate some new cleaning and administration work to manage it.
In any of these scenarios, patients still need to be treated as needed. Leave the mild cases to run the course to build herd immunity and get the vaccine ready for round 2. For the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, they had a vaccine (we use today) by October 2009.
Then remember… this will be back. And next time we should not panic.
As the media fiddles, we are watching Rome burn. Only China appears ready to rise from the ashes. So, don't be a Nero.
Join the conversation beyond the four corners of your TV and help us climb out of this hole before it is too late.
#COVID19, #RomeIsBurning, #ABetterPlan, #jointheconversation
Now back to your regularly scheduled 'programming' update. Welcome to Stepford, 1984 style. How a to program a population to accept the 'new normal'.
Remember to eat your Soylent Greens.**The common cold is a coronavirus (OC43). Coronaviruses account for 10%-30% of respiratory infections worldwide (as per Dr. Fauci) but have never locked down the world. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/types.html
There has never been a vaccine created for any human coronavirus; https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/general-information.html
Less than 2,000 'cases' (not 'deaths') in China alone, & drug makers 'rushed' to create a vaccine. This, despite no-one ever developing such a vaccine before. A cure for the common cold - Woo Hoo (or is that Wuhan). 50 years trying with no success for any coronavirus!
Jan 23 2020. https://www.wsj.com/articles/drugmakers-rush-to-develop-vaccines-against-china-virus-11579813026
Canada clamoring to cure the new 'common cold'. https://globalnews.ca/news/6466954/coronavirus-outbreak-vaccine-research/
Thanks Dr. Fauci for suddenly jumping on the vaccine money train. Maybe you will cure the common cold as well!!! https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2759815
We should stop comparing COVID 19 to the flu as H1N1 etc. have a vaccine.
COVID 19 - the new & improved 'Common Cold'. What is this really all about?**
Numbers courtesy of;